As COP28 draws to a close, current emissions pledges leave the planet facing almost 3°C of warming by the end of the century, nearly double the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target, according to the 2023 UN Environment Programme report.

The latest UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again), reports that despite some progress, we're still far from meeting the targets set by the Paris Agreement.

If current policies are continued, global warming is estimated to be limited to 3°C. Delivering on all unconditional and conditional pledges by 2030 lowers this estimate to 2.5°C, with the additional fulfilment of all net-zero pledges bringing it to 2°C.

The Emissions Gap Report 2023

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report tracks global efforts to limit warming below 2°C and reach the target of 1.5°C set out in the Paris Agreement. Since 2010, it measures the disparity between countries' emission pledges and what's needed to avoid severe climate impacts. Annually, it pinpoints ways to bridge this gap, focusing on key areas.

Released before the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP), the report informs climate negotiations among UN Member States. Produced by UNEP, the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre (UNEP-CCC), and partners, it serves as a critical tool for climate action.

Targets on thin ice

In this year’s report, there's a glimmer of improvement since 2015. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, based on policies in place, were projected to increase by 16% at the time of the agreement’s adoption. Today, the projected increase is 3%.

But here's the catch: we need a 28% drop for the 2°C pathway and a 42% plunge for the 1.5°C pathway to stay on track.

The world could face 3°C of warming by the end of this century. Image: Copernicus/ECMWF

At this point, even if countries stick to their unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the best-case scenario lands us at a 2.9°C above pre-industrial temperature rise – well beyond the Agreement's targets. Fully implementing conditional NDCs would lower this to 2.5°C.

Failing to achieve these reductions could push us closer to irreversible planetary "tipping points" and their drastic impacts on global systems.

If temperature rises hit 3°C, several irreversible planetary "tipping points" could be reached of blue spaces

Some systems have "tipping points," where even a small change can trigger abrupt transformations due to warming. These thresholds, like a car rolling downhill, mark irreversible shifts caused by minimal temperature rises. Crossing these thresholds leads to what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines as a significant, swift shift in the climate, lasting decades or less, leading to substantial disruptions in both human and natural systems.

Science defines two types of tipping points: one triggering qualitative changes in critical elements, the other leading to irreversible alterations through positive feedback mechanisms. Two such examples in the climate context are:

• Changes to ocean calcium carbonate chemistry resulting from an increase in temperature and dissolved carbon dioxide that reduce the structural integrity of corals and prevent hard corals from forming.
• Altered local weather patterns from climate change, in particular the incidence of high bushfire risk, and long droughts combined with high-intensity rainfall causing flooding and erosion – conditions which have always existed, but now occur more frequently than before, meaning that ecosystems have little time to recover between events. Added to this is the risk of increased fire and flood damage to private property, potentially making many homes uninsurable or (even more) unaffordable.

Once an irreversible tipping point is crossed, the system persists in its altered state, sometimes indefinitely.

Urgent call to action

Given these irreversible changes, urgent global low-carbon shifts are vital. Higher-emitting nations must lead and support emission reduction in developing nations.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres urges drastic action, asserting that the gap looks more like a canyon.

Image: UNEP 2023 Emissions GAP Report.

The report focuses on stronger implementation in the next NDC round due in 2025, emphasising the necessity of immediate, stringent emissions cuts to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals.

Political action must prioritise carbon dioxide removal, robust measurement systems, synergy leveraging, and innovation acceleration to achieve results.

Same song falling on deaf ears

Broken Record, the title for this year’s report, comes across as a frustrated last-ditch attempt to deliver a message that has been repeated time and time again. As chronicled through the first decade of UNEP reports, this sentiment is growing stronger with each report, as projections continue to climb and they say the cost of inaction is mounting.

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been steadily rising despite some countries making strides in climate policy. Between 2008 and 2017, emissions grew by 1.6% annually, hitting a record 53.5 GtCO2e in 2017. Preliminary data from the 2019 Emissions Gap Report suggested emissions kept growing in 2018, surpassing the previous record.

Over the past decade, three main factors have contributed to a growing emissions gap: failure to bridge the original 2020 gap, stronger temperature targets requiring more reductions by 2030, and increasingly stringent pathways for meeting these goals. 

What are we doing to change the music?

South East Queenslanders will be amongst the hardest hit by the changing global climate in Australia, with impacts ranging from sea level rise, drought, flood, fire and heat waves. While it is up to governments across the world to step up and take collective action, there are a few ways we can do our part right here at home to help reduce emissions and build resilience for a changing climate. Some of these things include:

• Planting water-wise street trees in urban and peri-urban areas to create shade and to absorb carbon dioxide.
• Choosing low-carbon alternatives such as public transport and using sustainable materials.
• Creating climate refugia for our threatened species.
• Planting trees along waterways to protect them from climate impacts.
• Harvesting and re-using stormwater.
• Delivering alternative water sources such as purified recycled water.

Sources:  https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/11/3c-warming-nature-and-climate-stories-cop28-11272023/

https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43922/EGR2023.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change/

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/climate-track-warm-by-nearly-3c-without-greater-ambition-un-report-2023-11-20/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Sustainable-Switch&utm_term=112123&user_email=698bb377de5d50e4b3a6c77d112eac0851341aff18e723335b7d482be81a57e4

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aag2345

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf